The Odds Comparison: 1 in 32 Million vs 1 in 292 Million
Powerball asks you to pick 5 numbers from 1-69 plus a Powerball from 1-26. That gives you jackpot odds of 1 in 292,201,338. Melate asks you to pick 6 numbers from 1-56. Jackpot odds: 1 in 32,468,436.
That's not a marginal difference. You are roughly 9 times more likely to win the Melate jackpot than the Powerball jackpot. To put it another way: for every single chance you have at Powerball, Melate gives you nine. If you bought 9 Melate tickets, your combined probability of winning the jackpot with at least one of them would roughly equal buying one Powerball ticket — except those 9 Melate tickets cost you about $9, while the one Powerball ticket costs $2. The odds gap is real, but it's not free.
Now, better odds come with a trade-off. Melate jackpots are smaller — typically in the MX$100-500 million range (about $6-29 million USD). You won't see billion-dollar prizes like Powerball occasionally produces. But here's the honest question: would you rather have a 1 in 292 million shot at $1 billion, or a 1 in 32 million shot at $15 million? For most people, $15 million is more than enough to change every aspect of their lives. You could buy a house outright, invest the rest conservatively, and never work again.
The math also favors Melate on expected value. Even with smaller jackpots, the dramatically better odds mean each ticket returns more per peso spent compared to Powerball's per-dollar return. And Melate jackpots roll over — meaning they grow when nobody wins. During rollover streaks, Melate's jackpots can push past MX$300 million ($18M+ USD), which tilts the expected value calculation even further in its favor.
Price Per Ticket: MX$15 vs $2
A Melate ticket costs MX$15 — roughly $1 USD at current exchange rates. A Powerball ticket costs $2. And if you want the Megaplier (which you should, since it multiplies non-jackpot prizes), that's $3 per Powerball ticket. Mega Millions is now $5 per ticket with the Megaplier included by default — five times the cost of a Melate entry.
So Melate is half to one-fifth the price of US lotteries, depending on which game and options you choose. That price difference has a compounding effect. If you play twice a week for a year:
- Melate: 104 draws x MX$15 = MX$1,560 (~$90 USD)
- Powerball: 156 draws x $2 = $312 USD (Powerball now draws 3x/week: Mon/Wed/Sat)
- Mega Millions: 104 draws x $5 = $520 USD
You spend roughly 3.5 times more on Powerball for odds that are 9 times worse. Mega Millions is even worse — nearly 6 times the cost for odds of 1 in 302 million. From a pure value perspective, Melate wins in a landslide.
But there's a bonus. Every Melate ticket automatically enters you into two additional draws — Melate Retro and Revanchita — at no extra cost. Three separate draws, three separate prize pools, one ticket price. Powerball gives you one chance per ticket. Mega Millions gives you one chance per ticket. Melate gives you three. That's effectively 312 draw entries per year for $90, compared to Powerball's 156 entries for $312.
Tax Treatment: 7% vs Up to 37%
Mexico taxes lottery winnings at 7% federal tax, plus a state tax that varies by region (typically 1-6%). In total, you're looking at roughly 8-13% tax on your winnings. That's it. And unlike the US, Mexico's lottery tax is withheld at the source — you receive your prize minus the tax, and there's generally no additional ISR (income tax) owed on lottery winnings since they're classified as 'chance games' under Mexican law.
Compare that to the United States. Federal tax withholding on lottery prizes is 24% immediately, but that's just the down payment. The actual tax rate for large jackpots hits 37% for the top bracket. Then add state income tax — which ranges from 0% in states like Florida and Texas to over 10% in California and New York. A Powerball winner in New York City faces a combined tax rate of roughly 50%. And you owe the difference between what was withheld and what you actually owe at tax time, which means an enormous tax bill in April.
Let's make this concrete. Say you win a $10 million jackpot (lump sum):
- In Mexico: ~$9.2 million after federal tax, or ~$8.7-9 million after state tax. You keep about 87-92%.
- In the US (Florida): ~$6.3 million after federal tax. You keep about 63%.
- In the US (New York): ~$5 million after federal + state + city tax. You keep about 50%.
Mexico's tax treatment is dramatically more player-friendly. Winners keep almost everything. That lower tax rate effectively increases the real value of every Melate ticket compared to its American equivalent. A MX$300 million Melate jackpot ($18M USD) with 10% total tax leaves you with $16.2 million. An $18 million Powerball prize in most states leaves you with $10-12 million. The pre-tax numbers are the same, but the after-tax reality is very different.
How Melate Works: The Rules in Detail
Melate is operated by Pronósticos para la Asistencia Pública, Mexico's official government lottery body. It's been running since 1984 and draws twice weekly on Wednesdays and Saturdays at 9:15 PM CST (10:15 PM ET). Like all government lotteries in Mexico, proceeds fund public assistance programs.
The format is straightforward: pick 6 numbers from 1 to 56. An additional number is drawn from the remaining pool for secondary prizes. Match all 6 main numbers to win the jackpot. There are 5 prize tiers total, ranging from the jackpot down to matching 3 of 6 numbers.
The triple-draw system is what makes Melate genuinely unique among the world's major lotteries. When you buy one ticket, you're entered into:
1. Melate — the main draw with the biggest jackpot
2. Melate Retro — a secondary draw using the same numbers, with its own separate prize pool
3. Revanchita — a third draw, again using the same numbers, with yet another independent prize pool
Three separate draws, three separate prize pools, one ticket price. No other major lottery in the world offers this kind of structure. It's like buying a Powerball ticket and getting free entries into two additional multi-million-dollar drawings. The Retro and Revanchita jackpots are typically smaller than the main Melate jackpot, but they're still substantial — often in the MX$10-50 million range each. Combined, the three draws give you significantly more total expected value per ticket than any single-draw lottery.
For a full breakdown of the game mechanics and current jackpot, see our Melate lottery page.
How to Play Melate Online
If you're in Mexico, you can buy Melate tickets at any authorized Pronósticos retailer — they're everywhere, from convenience stores to dedicated lottery shops. The official Pronósticos website also sells tickets online for Mexican residents.
If you're outside Mexico (but not in the United States), licensed lottery courier services like theLotter allow you to purchase official Melate tickets online. Here's how it works: you select your numbers on their platform, and a local agent in Mexico purchases a physical ticket on your behalf from an authorized retailer. You receive a scanned copy of the ticket, and if you win, they handle the claim process and transfer your winnings directly to your account.
Important for US readers: US residents cannot purchase international lottery tickets online. This is a federal restriction that applies to all international lotteries, including Melate. Legitimate courier services enforce this by blocking US-based purchases. If you see a service claiming to sell Melate tickets to US residents, that's a red flag — avoid it.
For players in Mexico and the rest of Latin America, Melate is available through the Mexico lottery hub on our site, where you can compare all available Mexican lotteries side by side.
Melate vs Other Latin American Lotteries
Melate isn't the only good lottery in the region. How does it stack up?
Melate vs Lotería Nacional (Mexico): Lotería Nacional is a raffle-style game — you buy pre-printed numbers rather than choosing your own. Jackpot odds are 1 in 100,000, which sounds amazing, but the prizes are structured differently and individual tickets cost MX$250 ($15 USD). Melate offers better value per peso for regular play; Lotería Nacional is better for special draws like Sorteo Magno.
Melate vs Quina (Brazil): Brazil's Quina has jackpot odds of 1 in 24 million — even better than Melate. But the jackpots are typically smaller (around R$5-10 million / $1-2 million USD). If you're purely optimizing for odds, Quina is interesting. For jackpot size relative to odds, Melate wins.
Melate vs Tinka (Peru): Tinka uses a 6/45 format with odds of 1 in 8.1 million. Incredible odds, but tiny jackpots — usually under S/10 million ($2.5M USD). Great for recreational play, less exciting if you're dreaming big.
Across Latin America, Melate hits the sweet spot: good odds, meaningful jackpots, dirt-cheap tickets, and three draws per purchase. It's the lottery that gives you the most for your money in the region.
The Honest Assessment: Should You Play Melate Over Powerball?
If you live in Mexico or another country where you can legally purchase Melate tickets — yes, the value proposition is stronger than Powerball by almost every measure. Better odds, cheaper tickets, lower taxes, triple draws per ticket. It's not even close when you stack up all the factors together.
Let's summarize the full comparison:
Melate advantages:
- 9x better jackpot odds (1 in 32M vs 1 in 292M)
- Half the ticket price ($1 vs $2)
- Lower taxes (7-13% vs 37-50%)
- Three draws per ticket (Melate + Retro + Revanchita)
- Wednesday and Saturday draws
Powerball advantages:
- Jackpots can exceed $1 billion
- Three draws per week (Mon/Wed/Sat)
- More widely available internationally
The only argument for Powerball over Melate is the sheer size of the top prize. When Powerball hits $1 billion, no lottery in the world matches that raw number. If you're the type of person who plays the lottery for the fantasy of a billion-dollar win, Melate's $15-29 million jackpots might not scratch that itch.
But if you're the type who cares about actually having a realistic shot? Melate is the better play. Period. A 1 in 32 million chance of winning $15 million is objectively more valuable than a 1 in 292 million chance of winning $500 million, once you factor in taxes and lump-sum reductions. And remember — $15 million after Mexico's low taxes is still $13+ million. That buys the same life-changing freedom that most people are fantasizing about when they buy a Powerball ticket.
For players outside the US who want to try Melate, the easiest path is through a trusted lottery courier service. They purchase a physical Melate ticket on your behalf from an authorized Mexican retailer, scan it to your account, and handle winnings claims.
Play Melate via theLotter
