Lottery Expected Value Calculator
Is your lottery ticket worth buying? Expected Value (EV) tells you the mathematical value of a $1 spent on any lottery ticket. When EV is positive, the ticket is theoretically worth more than it costs.
Formula: EV = (Jackpot x Cash Option x After-Tax Rate / Odds) - Ticket Cost
EV Calculator
Prize Tier Breakdown
Powerball
| Match | Prize | Odds | Probability | EV Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Expected Value | -$1.66 | |||
Jackpot prize shown at cash-option value (50% of advertised) after applicable tax. Lower-tier prizes shown at face value. Probability = 1 / odds.
How Expected Value Works
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per ticket over time. A positive EV means the lottery is theoretically worth playing; a negative EV means you'll lose money on average.
Example: If a lottery has a $500M jackpot, 1 in 292M odds, a $2 ticket, and 37% tax, the EV is: ($500M × 50% cash × 63% after-tax) ÷ 292M − $2 = -$1.46. You lose $1.46 per ticket on average.
When does EV go positive? For US Powerball, the jackpot needs to reach roughly $1.7 billion (advertised) for the ticket to be +EV. This has only happened a few times in history. Lotteries with better odds (like Peru Kabala at 1 in 1.9M) reach positive EV at much lower jackpot levels.
Live EV Comparison — All Lotteries
Sorted by Expected Value (best to worst). Live jackpot data from theLotter RSS feed. Updated at build time.
| Lottery | Jackpot | Odds | Ticket | Tax | EV / Ticket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa Daily Lotto South Africa |
$30,465 | 1 in 376,992 775x better | $0 | Tax-free | -$0.07 |
| South Africa Lotto South Africa |
$5 Million | 1 in 20,358,520 14x better | $0 | Tax-free | -$0.07 |
| Poland Mini Lotto Poland |
$137,624 | 1 in 850,668 343x better | $0 | 10% | -$0.10 |
| South Africa Powerball South Africa |
$2 Million | 1 in 42,375,200 7x better | $0 | Tax-free | -$0.26 |
| Australia Saturday Lotto Australia |
$4 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $1 | Tax-free | -$0.28 |
| Philippines Lotto 6/42 Philippines |
$167,470 | 1 in 5,245,786 56x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.37 |
| Philippines Super Lotto 6/49 Philippines |
$418,675 | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.38 |
| Philippines Grand Lotto 6/55 Philippines |
$753,615 | 1 in 28,989,675 10x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.38 |
| Philippines Ultra Lotto 6/58 Philippines |
N/A | 1 in 40,475,358 7x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.40 |
| Philippines Mega Lotto 6/45 Philippines |
N/A | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.40 |
| Romania Joker Romania |
$14 Million | 1 in 24,435,180 12x better | $1 | 16% | -$0.50 |
| Canada Ontario 49 Canada |
$1 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $1 | Tax-free | -$0.65 |
| Australia Powerball Australia |
$28 Million | 1 in 134,490,400 2x better | $1 | Tax-free | -$0.69 |
| Tinka Peru |
$2 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $1 | 10% | -$0.74 |
| Melate Mexico |
$9 Million | 1 in 32,468,436 9x better | $1 | 7% | -$0.75 |
| Australia Oz Lotto Australia |
$11 Million | 1 in 45,379,620 6x better | $1 | Tax-free | -$0.77 |
| Kabala Peru |
$429,948 | 1 in 1,947,792 150x better | $1 | 10% | -$0.80 |
| Romania Loto 6/49 Romania |
$3 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $1 | 16% | -$0.81 |
| Polish Lotto Poland |
$1 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $1 | 10% | -$0.91 |
| Mexico Chispa Boom Mexico |
$8,633 | 1 in 100,000 2922x better | $1 | 7% | -$0.92 |
| Mexico Triple Chance Clásico Mexico |
$57,556 | 1 in 3,819,816 76x better | $1 | 7% | -$0.99 |
| Mexico Mex Lotto Vintage Mexico |
$293,536 | 1 in 32,468,436 9x better | $1 | 7% | -$0.99 |
| Lotería Nacional Mexico |
N/A | 1 in 100,000 2922x better | $1 | 7% | -$1.00 |
| Japan Loto 6 Japan |
$4 Million | 1 in 6,096,454 48x better | $1 | 55% | -$1.02 |
| Japan Mini Loto Japan |
$62,830 | 1 in 169,911 1720x better | $1 | 55% | -$1.13 |
| UK Thunderball United Kingdom |
N/A | 1 in 8,060,598 36x better | $1 | Tax-free | -$1.25 |
| German Lotto 6aus49 Germany |
N/A | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $1 | 20% | -$1.30 |
| Italy SuperStar Italy |
$172 Million | 1 in 56,035,316,700 | $2 | 20% | -$1.50 |
| Japan Loto 7 Japan |
$4 Million | 1 in 10,295,472 28x better | $2 | 55% | -$1.84 |
| Powerball USA |
$35 Million | 1 in 292,201,338 | $2 | 37% | -$1.96 |
| BonoLoto Spain |
$467,645 | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $2 | 20% | -$1.97 |
| Portugal Totoloto Portugal |
$10 Million | 1 in 26,978,328 11x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.64 |
| Italy MillionDAY Italy |
$1 Million | 1 in 3,478,761 84x better | $3 | 20% | -$2.73 |
| Italy Million Day Extra Italy |
$1 Million | 1 in 3,478,761 84x better | $3 | 20% | -$2.73 |
| Austria Lotto Austria |
$2 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.80 |
| La Primitiva Spain |
$4 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $3 | 20% | -$2.80 |
| Italy Lotto (Lottomatica) Italy |
$3 Million | 1 in 43,949,268 7x better | $3 | 20% | -$2.94 |
| UK National Lottery United Kingdom |
N/A | 1 in 45,057,474 6x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$3.00 |
| Mega-Sena Brazil |
N/A | 1 in 50,063,860 6x better | $3 | 13% | -$3.00 |
| Canada Lotto 6/49 Canada |
$4 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$3.74 |
| SuperEnalotto Italy |
$172 Million | 1 in 622,614,630 | $4 | 20% | -$3.78 |
| El Gordo de la Primitiva Spain |
$6 Million | 1 in 31,625,100 9x better | $4 | 20% | -$3.84 |
| Irish Lotto Ireland |
N/A | 1 in 10,737,573 27x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$4.00 |
| EuroMillions Europe |
$123 Million | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.12 |
| EuroMillions Austria Austria |
$123 Million | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.12 |
| France Loto France |
$15 Million | 1 in 19,068,840 15x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.20 |
| EuroDreams Europe |
$8 Million | 1 in 19,191,900 15x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.56 |
| Mega Millions USA |
$110 Million | 1 in 290,472,336 | $5 | 37% | -$4.88 |
| EuroJackpot Europe |
$12 Million | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.92 |
| El Gordo de Navidad Spain |
N/A | 1 in 100,000 2922x better | $5 | 20% | -$5.00 |
Disclaimer: Expected Value calculations are simplified and don't account for multiple winners splitting the jackpot, lower-tier prizes, or the time value of annuity payments. All lotteries have negative EV over the long run. This tool is for educational purposes only. Play responsibly.