Is your lottery ticket worth buying? Expected Value (EV) tells you the mathematical value of a $1 spent on any lottery ticket. When EV is positive, the ticket is theoretically worth more than it costs.
Formula: EV = (Jackpot × Cash Option × After-Tax Rate ÷ Odds) − Ticket Cost
Expected Value (EV) is the average amount you can expect to win (or lose) per ticket over time. A positive EV means the lottery is theoretically worth playing; a negative EV means you'll lose money on average.
Example: If a lottery has a $500M jackpot, 1 in 292M odds, a $2 ticket, and 37% tax, the EV is: ($500M × 50% cash × 63% after-tax) ÷ 292M − $2 = -$1.46. You lose $1.46 per ticket on average.
When does EV go positive? For US Powerball, the jackpot needs to reach roughly $1.7 billion (advertised) for the ticket to be +EV. This has only happened a few times in history. Lotteries with better odds (like Peru Kabala at 1 in 1.9M) reach positive EV at much lower jackpot levels.
Sorted by Expected Value (best to worst). Live jackpot data from theLotter RSS feed. Updated at build time.
| Lottery | Jackpot | Odds | Ticket | Tax | EV / Ticket |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philippines Grand Lotto Philippines |
$750,555 | 1 in 28,989,675 10x better | $0 | 20% | -$0.49 |
| Tinka Peru |
$3 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $1 | 10% | -$0.84 |
| Melate Mexico |
$7 Million | 1 in 32,468,436 9x better | $1 | 7% | -$0.91 |
| Kabala Peru |
N/A | 1 in 1,947,792 150x better | $1 | 10% | -$1.00 |
| Romania Loto 6/49 Romania |
N/A | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $1 | 16% | -$1.00 |
| Japan Loto 6 Japan |
$4 Million | 1 in 6,096,454 48x better | $2 | 55% | -$1.86 |
| Powerball USA |
$120 Million | 1 in 292,201,338 | $2 | 37% | -$1.87 |
| Japan Loto 7 Japan |
$4 Million | 1 in 10,295,472 28x better | $2 | 55% | -$1.92 |
| Polish Lotto Poland |
N/A | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $2 | 10% | -$2.00 |
| BonoLoto Spain |
N/A | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $2 | 20% | -$2.00 |
| Portugal Totoloto Portugal |
$8 Million | 1 in 26,978,328 11x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.85 |
| Italy MillionDAY Italy |
$1 Million | 1 in 3,478,761 84x better | $3 | 20% | -$2.87 |
| Austria Lotto Austria |
$1 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.92 |
| South Africa Lotto South Africa |
$3 Million | 1 in 20,358,520 14x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.92 |
| South Africa Powerball South Africa |
$6 Million | 1 in 42,375,200 7x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$2.93 |
| La Primitiva Spain |
N/A | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $3 | 20% | -$3.00 |
| UK National Lottery United Kingdom |
N/A | 1 in 45,057,474 6x better | $3 | Tax-free | -$3.00 |
| Mega-Sena Brazil |
N/A | 1 in 50,063,860 6x better | $3 | 13% | -$3.00 |
| Australia Saturday Lotto Australia |
$4 Million | 1 in 8,145,060 36x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$3.74 |
| Canada Lotto 6/49 Canada |
$4 Million | 1 in 13,983,816 21x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$3.87 |
| El Gordo de la Primitiva Spain |
$5 Million | 1 in 31,625,100 9x better | $4 | 20% | -$3.93 |
| Oz Lotto Australia |
$3 Million | 1 in 45,379,620 6x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$3.97 |
| Australia Powerball Australia |
$7 Million | 1 in 134,490,400 2x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$3.97 |
| SuperEnalotto Italy |
N/A | 1 in 622,614,630 | $4 | 20% | -$4.00 |
| Irish Lotto Ireland |
N/A | 1 in 10,737,573 27x better | $4 | Tax-free | -$4.00 |
| EuroDreams Europe |
$8 Million | 1 in 19,191,900 15x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.78 |
| EuroJackpot Europe |
$46 Million | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.84 |
| EuroMillions Europe |
$45 Million | 1 in 139,838,160 2x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.84 |
| France Loto France |
$6 Million | 1 in 19,068,840 15x better | $5 | Tax-free | -$4.85 |
| Mega Millions USA |
$50 Million | 1 in 290,472,336 | $5 | 37% | -$4.95 |
Disclaimer: Expected Value calculations are simplified and don't account for multiple winners splitting the jackpot, lower-tier prizes, or the time value of annuity payments. All lotteries have negative EV over the long run. This tool is for educational purposes only. Play responsibly.